|
Cost Item |
Fuel Bus (USD) |
Electric Bus (USD) |
+- (USD) |
Note |
|
Purchase |
$35,300 |
$47,500 |
-($12,200) |
E-bus=higher initial investment |
|
Energy (8 years) |
$128,304 |
$10,696 |
+$117,608 |
E-bus=lower energy expenditure |
|
Maintenance (8 years) |
$13,200 |
$2,208 |
+$10,992 |
E-bus=lower maintnance cost |
|
Total Cost |
$176,804 |
$60,404 |
+$116,400 |
E-bus=significantly lower cost |
This table clearly demonstrates that, at a given operating intensity, electric buses offer overwhelming economic advantages over their lifetime, saving $116,400.
Significant operating cost advantage:
Although the electric bus's purchase cost is $12,200 higher, its significantly lower energy and maintenance costs result in a total cost advantage exceeding $116,400 over eight years.
High return on investment:
The high initial investment is significantly recouped in the first year of operation through energy and maintenance savings. Calculating the payback period:
Annual operating savings = (Total annual operating cost of a gasoline bus - Total annual operating cost of an electric bus)
Annual operating savings = ($17,688 - $1,613) = $16,075
Payback period = Initial cost difference / Annual savings = $12,200 / $16,075 ≈ 0.76 years (approximately 9 months)
This means that the additional purchase cost of the electric bus is fully recovered in just 9 months, with significant annual savings thereafter. If oil prices rise or electricity prices fall, the advantages of electric buses will further increase; vice versa. This doesn't take into account battery replacement costs (which could occur in 8-10 years), but even then, the significant operating cost advantage will more than offset any potential battery replacement costs.
6-meter pure electric bus
https://www.yangtseauto.com/bus/electric-city-bus-6m.html
How were the above data derived? Let's break it down in detail:
Assumptions:
Annual operating mileage: 300 km per day, 330 operating days per year, resulting in an annual operating mileage of 99,000 km.
Energy consumption per 100 kilometers: Gasoline bus 18 L/100 km, electric bus 45 kWh/100 km
Energy price: Gasoline price 0.9 USD/L, Electricity price 0.03 USD/kWh
Energy expenditure per 100 kilometers: Gasoline bus 18 L × 0.9 USD/L = 16.2 USD/100 km, electric bus: 45 kWh × 0.03 USD/kWh = 1.35 USD/100 km
Annual energy expenditure: Gasoline bus 99,000 km / 100 km × 16.2 USD = 16,038 USD, electric bus 99,000 km / 100 km × 45 kWh × 0.03 USD/kWh = 1,337 USD
Purchase cost: Gasoline bus 35,300 USD, electric bus 47,500 USD
Annual maintenance cost: Gasoline bus 1,650 USD, electric bus 276 USD
Analysis Period: 8 Years
Total Cost Calculation
The total cost includes the purchase cost and operating costs (energy costs + maintenance) over 8 years.
Fuel bus
Annual operating cost (energy + maintenance): $16,038 + $1,650 = $17,688
8-year operating cost: $17,688 × 8 = $141,504
Total cost: $35,300 + $141,504 = $176,804
Electric bus
Annual operating cost (energy + maintenance): $1,337 + $276 = $1,613
8-year operating cost: $1,613 × 8 = $12,904
Total cost: $47,500 + $12,904 = $60,404
Cost difference
Total cost difference: $176,804 - $60,404 = $116,400
Electric bus savings compared to fuel bus: $116,400 USD (approximately 65.8% savings)
Conclusion
Based on the above assumptions, the total cost of an electric bus over its eight-year lifecycle is significantly lower than that of a fuel-powered bus, with a savings of USD 116,400. This is primarily due to the lower energy and maintenance costs of electric buses.
The above comparison is an idealized scenario; other factors need to be considered:
Battery Replacement Cost:
The battery life of an electric bus may be less than eight years (especially under intensive operation). Assuming the battery pack needs to be replaced in year five, at an estimated cost of approximately USD 10,000, the total cost of the electric bus increases by USD 10,000 to USD 70,404, still significantly lower than the fuel-powered bus cost of USD 176,804.
Inflation and Discount Rates:
Long-term analysis should consider energy price inflation and the time value of money (discount rate), but this may complicate the analysis. For now, we assume stable prices.
Residual Value:
After eight years, the vehicle is likely to have a residual value. Assuming a 10% residual value, the residual value of a gasoline bus is $3,530, while that of an electric bus is $4,750. However, the adjusted figures remain unchanged.
In addition, many regions offer purchase subsidies or tax incentives for electric buses, which can further reduce the initial cost of an electric bus.
You can also perform calculations based on variables such as energy prices, operating mileage, and government subsidies in your region. If your calculations show that the total cost of a gasoline bus is lower than that of an electric bus, please let me know.
